Clean energy and Mark Twain are not related, but it’s worth paraphrasing his famous quote: reports about the death of EV sales are greatly exaggerated.
Data from the International Energy Agency’s Global EV Outlook 2024 makes vibration-based reports about EV sales disappearing seem ridiculous: global EV sales may reach 17 million by 2024, that more than one in five cars sold internationally will be electric.
The growing demand for clean and economical electric cars for the rest of this decade will completely replace the global automotive industry. By 2035, the IEA predicts that 50% of all cars sold in the world will be electric cars, reducing oil demand by 6 to 10 million barrels per day, equivalent to the amount currently used for trucking in the United States.
The price gap between electric vehicles and fossil-fuel-powered internal combustion engines has narrowed so temporarily that initial selling prices are hardly different. With moderate electricity replacing higher oil prices, drivers can save a lot by driving electric vehicles.
This is wonderful news for lowering prices for consumers, creating new jobs and investments, and cleaning up our air.
Everyone, in the world, needs to save money and breathe cleaner air. Soon, everyone will have the option to make their next car a clean and affordable electric vehicle.
The IEA’s annual Global EV Outlook identifies and assesses recent developments in global electric mobility. And the IEA is considered to be the world’s leading authority on all energy trends, which means those forecasts are exaggerated: they are based on data.
Recent news reports have heralded a drop in sales to mark the end of the EV revolution, but the actual numbers couldn’t be out of the headlines for the world’s three largest auto markets.
This year, EV sales in China, the world’s largest car market, are expected to reach 10 million vehicles, or about 45% of all car sales in the country. In the United States, the world’s second-largest car market, electric vehicle sales are expected to increase by up to 20% through 2023, to about 11% of all new car sales. And in Europe, the world’s third-largest car market, EV sales could rise by as much as 10%, accounting for 25%. of total sales.
IEA (2024), Quarterly Automobile Sales by Region, 2021-2024, IEA, ParisArray. . [ ] https://www. iea. org/data-and-statistics/charts/ quarterly–automobile-sales -through region- 2021-2024, License: CC BY 4. 0
New car sales end up accounting for entire fleets, and the IEA predicts that by 2030, electric cars will account for 33% of all cars on the road in China, while 20% of all cars on the road in the United States and the European Union. it will be electric.
The key to these sales lies in the combination of a climate-smart policy and the maturation of the entire electric vehicle sector. The IEA notes that policies in the three major automotive markets (China’s 14th Five-Year Plan, the U. S. Inflation Reduction Act, and the EU’s Net-Zero Industry Act have given automakers the political certainty to make long-term investments, reducing prices and increasing supply.
More than 20 automakers around the world, accounting for 90% of car sales, have set electrification targets, and in 2022-2023, investments in the production of electric vehicles and batteries amounted to $500 billion.
EV prices are falling as generation improves and production expands; most electric vehicles sold in China are cheaper than internal combustion engines and tariff parity is expected until 2030 in all other primary markets outside China.
Even if the starting prices of electric cars are no less expensive than those of gas-powered cars, electric cars are still less expensive to buy – leasing an electric vehicle is the cheapest way to buy a new car in the U. S. Charging an EV costs less than filling up an in-house vehicle: sedan, SUV, or combustion-engine pickup truck in every U. S. state. U. S.
Leasing an electric vehicle costs up to $6,000 less consistently over the year and buying or leasing an Array vehicle. [ ] Petrol Vehicle
Global battery recycling capacity reached 300 gigawatt hours in 2023 and could exceed 1,500 GWh by 2030, more than triple the number of batteries that could be recycled that year as EVs reach the end of their lives.
And global installations of public charging stations will increase by up to 40% between 2023 and 2022, with fast-charging station additions outpacing slow-charging stations.
As such, the four main barriers to EV ownership – availability, cost, charging, and waste – are on track to be overcome. It’s no wonder the IEA is so positive about the long-term of electric vehicles.
All of these trends are playing out in the United States, regardless of what the headlines say.
While Tesla’s sales would have possibly declined, other brands increased their sales, partially offsetting the decline. For example, Ford’s year-to-date EV sales have nearly doubled, overall sales nationwide rose in the first quarter of 2024, and nationwide EV sales have increased every quarter since 2021.
Energy innovation models show that post-Inflation Reduction Act EV sales are at the higher end of initial estimates, on track to meet shipping sector emissions reduction targets. This could possibly be because the average transaction fees for EVs in the United States fell to just under $51,000 in December 2023, reducing the charge parity hole with gas-powered cars to just $2,000.
Federal policy is also boosting the rest of the EV ecosystem. Since the Inflation Reduction Act was signed, automakers and battery manufacturers have announced nearly $88 billion in new electric vehicle and battery plants.
Announcements of investment in vehicle and battery production made since the Inflation Law. [ ] Law of Reduction
And the U. S. now has 8,200 public fast-charging stations, or one fast-charging station for every 15 fuel stations. That number is sure to increase thanks to the $7. 5 billion in EV charging budget allocated through the Infrastructure Investment Fund and the Jobs Act to build a national network of at least 500,000 public charging stations through 2030, all components of the Biden administration’s blank energy strategy.
CEOs of major oil corporations have taken advantage of volatile energy costs during conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East to sow pain at the pump, making more than $238 billion in profits in 2021 and $451 billion in profits in 2022.
Evidence released by the Federal Trade Commission shows that the highest oil rates from 2021 to 2023 were due to collusion between oil companies, charging an average American family of four between $2000 and $4000 in 2021, or between 15% and 30% of all inflation. The charge increases that year.
It’s no surprise that consumers are opting for electric vehicles: driving an electric vehicle is the most direct way to fight oil company abusive costs and get off the fossil fuel rollercoaster, as electric power costs are lower in comparison and have remained stable over the years. time.
Driving an electric vehicle is also a way to breathe cleaner air. Pollutants from internal combustion engine exhaust are concentrated around major roads and impair people’s physical condition due to asthma, cardiovascular disease, impaired lung progression in children, and premature death.
So don’t rely on vibrations when it comes to EV sales. Your wallet and lungs will thank you later.
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