It may take only six years for the sale of new petrol and diesel cars to be replaced by electric. Here’s why.
The Driven
On Monday, we wrote about the adjustments in the thinking of investors who had taken Tesla’s price to the point of adjusting to the world’s most valuable automaker, even though it was a bit of the 30 of its predecessor, Toyota, the new car. 2019.
The focus is very much on the future, and what is likely to happen when the “ticket price” of electric cars falls closer to that of their petrol and diesel equivalents, spurred on new emission standards, technology progress and customer preference.
In that story we included this remarkable graph, courtesy of Professor Ray Wills from Future Smart Strategies (and a director of Horizon Power and an adjunct professor at UWA). See It’s taken Tesla just 10 years to end Ice Age for Big Auto and Big Oil
It sparked a lot of interest, so we decided to find out more. Is this just a wild prediction? And how does Wills back up his forecast?
This is what Wills told us.
Sales of internal combustion engine cars are declining and every month since the end of 2017. In other words, car sales appear to have peaked in 2017. In 2018, international sales of new cars were lower than 2017 and in 2019 were lower than 2018. (June 2020 is the first accumulation of all this time, after the coVID19 lows in April and May.
In general, hybrid sales have taken a step forward, but to the point where they would recommend an escape and transfer from ICE (internal combustion engine) to hybrid.
Toyota’s belated reaction to Toyota’s electrification and drive for hybrid sales as an option for battery-powered electric cars reflect its dominance in this industry.
To read the full edition of this story, and see the photo gallery, about The Driven’ committed to electric vehicles, click here…
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Giles Parkinson is founder and editor-in-chief of Renew Economy, and is also founder of One Step Off The Grid and founder/editor of The Driven. Giles has been a journalist for 35 years and is a former leader and deputy editor of the Australian Financial Review.
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