Tesla (TSLA) is expected to miss its delivery goal for the quarter and the full year 2024, according to industry analysts.
Tesla hasn’t been releasing quarterly delivery goals for years. Instead, the automaker has been guiding a roughly 50% annual increase in deliveries, with some years less than that and others more.
However, Tesla had to abandon them generally in 2024.
Deliveries slowed in the first half, preventing Tesla from achieving a 50% expansion and making an appearance at all.
However, Tesla surprised through its new revenue stream by announcing that it is still making plans to achieve delivery expansion in 2024:
Despite the existing macroeconomic conditions, we plan a slight expansion in vehicle deliveries in 2024.
To deliver more than the 1.8 million vehicles it delivered in 2023, Tesla needs to deliver 515,000 vehicles in Q4. That’s significantly more than the 476,000 vehicles it delivered during the same period last year, which was also Tesla’s all-time quarterly delivery record.
The automaker is expected to release its delivery results on Thursday or Friday.
Analysts have been updating their delivery expectations for Q4, and the consensus currently sits at 507,000 units.
This would be a new delivery record for Tesla, it would not reach the delivery target of 515,000 units, which would also result in a failure of Tesla’s planned “slight growth” in 2024.
We inform about the operation of Tesla this quarter and it seems that the car manufacturer is going well in China, which is its largest market, but it is having serious problems in Europe.
The United States, which is a more opaque market, will make a difference, but we will not know certainly before Tesla publishes the effects at the end of this week.
As far as I’m concerned, Benn has been thinking about buying a new Model 3. Lately I have an M3 of 2019 and I thought that changing it would be a good idea. I would have bought it a long time ago if it were not for Musk’s habit and when it has been involved so much in politics in such a disruptive way, I do not see how that rarely will cause serious damage to the Tesla brand. So, no, I would not buy a new Tesla and wait to see what is in stores in the new year.
I don’t think deliveries will make a big difference this quarter. I think most people already see 2024 as a wash for Tesla deliveries.
As I said before, the CyberTruck was a mistake. Whether you like the truck or not, I think it’s clear that the Cybertruck probably wouldn’t make a particularly big contribution to Tesla’s growth, and the focus on the program for a few years beyond has resulted in this pause in Tesla’s growth.
Instead, Tesla should have focused on cheaper electric vehicles, which seems to be the focus in 2025.
Hopefully, Tesla will expand again in 2025, but that may be difficult. While the new Model Y and the two new, less expensive cars built on the Model 3/Y help, EV incentives are expected to disappear in the U. S. and the festival is ramping up in China.
Fred is editor in chief and senior editor at Electrek.
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