We have July month sales numbers from Norway, Sweden and The Netherlands. Polestar 2 (“Volvo”) outsold Tesla Model 3.
Tesla Model 3 was down 94% compared to one year ago, in those countries. Yes, that’s not a typo.
Tesla Model 3 also was outsold by Porsche Taycan (5:1), Mercedes EQC (13:1) and Audi eTron (17:1).
Mind you, we’re not even talking about Tesla Model X or S here. We’re talking about the Model 3!
This is just the beginning of Tesla’s market share troubles in Europe. The competition in Europe is eating into Tesla from all sides.
NOTE: An edition of this article was first published on or about August 4, 2020 on my Seeking Alpha Marketplace website.
July sales figures from European countries are starting to arrive, and things don’t seem smart for Tesla (TSLA), to say the least. At the time of writing, we have the July unit sales effects of some of the most powerful electric vehicle (EV) markets in Europe, namely Norway, Sweden and the Netherlands.
First let’s communicate about the newcomer to the Scene of the European vehicle, the Polestar 2. What is Polestar 2, questions?
Polestar is a joint venture between Geely and Volvo Cars. Volvo Cars is largely owned by Geely, so Volvo Cars and Geely are virtually the same, just as Kia and Hyundai are actually the same. The marketing organization is different, as are some design elements.
The Polestar 2 is the first Chinese-made car to be sold on U.S. soil. Volvo itself had two cars made in China that were sold in the United States a few years ago. General Motors has sold two cars, manufactured in China, in the United States in recent years.
But we are talking about 3 of the first countries in Europe to publish the effects of unit sales in July, and it turns out that these are 3 of the highest vital electric vehicle markets in Europe. So how did Polestar 2 do compared to the beloved EV, the Tesla Model 3?
Europe July
Tesla Model 3
Polar Star 2
Norway
22
17
Sweden
5
50
Netherlands
31
15
Total
58
82
Data source: EV registration statistics for The Netherlands, Norway and Spain and Nyregistreringar
The absolute numbers for both cars are ridiculously small.
Polestar 2 outperformed the Tesla Model 3.
You may be wondering: how do sales figures for Tesla Model 3 sets compare in the 3 European countries with a year ago?
Model 3
July 2020
July 2019
Change
Norway
22
308
-93%
Sweden
5 5
148
-97%
Netherlands
31
590
-95%
Total
58
1046
-94%
Data source: vehicle registration statistics for the Netherlands, Norway and Spain and Nyregistreringar
As you can see in the table above, we take a look here at an impressive expansion company: minus 94%. By comparison, this is much worse than the decrease in AOL dial-up modem subscribers two decades ago. Tesla’s “expansion” in those geographic spaces is negative and comes into oblivion.
But wait, more! Tesla’s most beloved cars, the Model X and Model S, also have all-electric competition from Audi, Mercedes and Porsche, among others. How does the less-loved Model 3 compare to the most beloved electric vehicles?
Europe July
Tesla Model 3
Audi eTron
Mercedes EQC
Porsche Taycan
Norway
22
698
655
105
Sweden
5 5
138
72
88
Netherlands
31
172
53
83
Total
58
1008
780
276
Data source: vehicle registration statistics for the Netherlands, Norway and Spain and Nyregistreringar
As you can see in the table above, this is precisely a difficult decision. Porsche Taycan surpassed the Tesla Model 3 at approximately 5:1, the Mercedes EQC 13:1 and the Audi eTron 17: 1. And yes, the Audi eTron includes the Sportback versions (50 and 55) for apparent reasons.
I’m not sure those numbers could get worse for Tesla, so I hope Tesla’s Model 3 sales figures in Europe will do so after the July fiasco. However, it is also not transparent that Tesla has not lost the sales floor in Europe forever. Polestar, Audi, Mercedes, Porsche and many others will continue to eat the Model 3’s meat like hyenas who delight in a wildebeest.
Tesla is valued as a developing company with a dominant market share. These are the sales figures for Tesla Model 3 in Europe in total (not in the 3 countries mentioned above):
Europe
Tesla Model 3
Total EV sales
Tesla M3 %
January.2019
0 0
33431
0%
February 2019
3757
32671
11%
March 2019
15771
59741
26%
April 2019
3738
37111
ten%
May 2019
2489
37399
7%
Jun 2019
11604
47384
24%
July 2019
3478
35838
ten%
August 2019
5286
35278
15%
Seven. 2019
17490
58662
30%
Oct 2019
1767
48219
4%
Nov 2019
7380
55033
13%
Dec 2019
22137
77248
29%
January 2020
1517
74663
2%
Feb 2020
3589
69538
5%
Mar 2020
16121
84349
19%
Apr 2020
2461
31500
8%
May 2020
2278
46805
5%
June 2020
7224
92880
8%
Data source: EV Sales
As you can see in the table above, 2020 has been a disaster for Tesla. EV market share has ranged from 2% to 8% in all months except for one. We don’t have the July numbers for all of Europe yet, obviously, but that will come in about three weeks from now. I expect Tesla’s July numbers in Europe to be very, very low, even by these standards.
So what about the global as a total for Tesla – Model 3 as the total?
Global
Tesla Model 3
Tesla total
Total EV sales
Tesla M3 %
Tesla total %
Jan 2019
7277
10340
153695
5%
7%
February 2019
10436
14050
111541
9%
13%
March 2019
33187
38084
224335
15%
Apr 2019
17464
20823
166200
11%
13%
May 2019
17965
23156
179270
ten%
13%
June 2019
39632
15%
19057
23284
21336
26758
157696
14%
17%
Seven. 2019
39201
49821
183393
21%
27%
Oct 2019
13359
16565
149552
9%
11%
Nov 2019
25878
31337
176547
15%
18%
Dec 2019
53742
63148
279214
19%
23%
January 2020
10013
12779
150613
7%
8%
February 2020
13661
16276
116170
12%
14%
March 2020
48788
60131
192380
25%
31%
Apr 2020
11761
14793
110274
11%
13%
May 2020
20847
24607
144600
14%
17%
Jun 2020
35854
49765
229894
16%
22%
Data source: EV Sales
As you can see in the table above, the overall sales figures seem a little higher for Tesla. For what? China and North America. In fact, it’s all China, however, we have a lot of numbers to break them down right now. In any case, Europe’s excessive weakness is offset by Tesla’s strong expansion in China in the first part of 2020.
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