Labour is on track to win a 56-seat majority in the next election, according to a new multi-level and post-stratification regression (MRP) ballot via Savanta ComRes for LabourList.
The MRP model, carried out together with the election calculation, shows that Labour (45%) has a 12-point lead over the Conservatives (33%) in Britain, which would generate a dominant majority if that result were to occur in the next election. .
The style advised that with such an advantage, Labour would regain many of the so-called “red wall” seats, constituencies historically regarded as Labour seats, but many of which ruled out Conservative MPs at the last election, adding Ashfield, Bassetlaw, Blyth Valley, Sedgefield and Workington.
The seats inquiry also showed that Labour held seats through prominent Conservative MPs, adding those who would have leadership candidates from Steve Baker (Wycombe) and Ben Wallace (Wyre and Preston North), and former Prime Minister Boris Johnson (Uxbridge and South Ruislip).
However, the ballot showed that some classic constituencies, those that tend to point to the winner of an election, do not pass in the Labour direction, with the Conservatives keeping Dartford, Portsmouth North, Nuneaton and Great Yarmouth.
Of the 357 parliamentary constituencies recently held by the Conservative Party, the electorate in 279 said it relied more on Labour to manage policies similar to the emerging burden of life than on the Conservatives, adding 132 constituencies in which style shows labour takes credit for the Conservatives at the next election.
This advantage over a policy dominance most likely to outline the next election, however, is replicated to the same extent with respect to the “Best Prime Minister” measure.
Keir Starmer leads Liz Truss in just 53 of the 357 seats recently held by the Conservatives, and the MRP style indicates that Labour is the most likely winner in 52 of them in the next election.
There are, however, a handful of seats held by Labour, who say Truss would be a better prime minister than Starmer, and adds Wakefield, Labour’s latest election victory.
The style also shows that Labor gained more than 20 points in its 2019 result in several seats, adding victories in the aforementioned Ashfield and Eddisbury, which Labor won even in 1997.
Chris Hopkins, policy director at Savanta ComRes, said: “This style of MRP highlights the forward-looking and precarious nature of Labour’s main ballot at the moment.
“Many classic polls, and this MRP model, show that Labour enjoys a double-digit lead over the Conservative Party, but one percentage point in any case can mean the difference between a large Labour majority, a small Labour majority or no majority. .
“While this style provides Labour with a 56-seat majority with a 12-point lead over the Conservatives, a 1-point change in the other direction could affect that majority, and any larger return to Liz Truss’ party could deprive Labour of a majority, even if its national vote share exceeds the Conservative figure by 8-9 points.
“Labour will have to hope that any recovery of the structure will be short-lived and take advantage of an economic outlook that rarely rewards governing parties at the ballot box.
“If Labour can consistently generate double-digit polls on the government, Keir Starmer will be on the right track for Downing Street, so this convention is a moment in his direction.
“He now has the opportunity to really differentiate Labour from the economic policies of a Truss-led government, and if he can convince the electorate that it is Labour, rather than the Conservatives, who have the answers to deal with the myriad of messes facing the country, the workers’ lead in the 2022 polls could start to feel more confident than it feels lately.
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