Boil it all down — the flashes of brilliance, the breakthroughs in learning, the occasional splash when one hits the proverbial wall — and the essence of an NBA rookie’s season is undeniable at the level of Herm Edwards: you select and expand the clients to win the game. .
Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but the day will come soon, as Humphrey Bogart’s character says in “Casablanca. “Some of the top-elite rookies in league history have had a quick effect on their teams’ records. Many went on to win championships.
Starting with Bob Pettit in 1955, 25 of the 63 players who won or shared the Rookie of the Year award through 2015 won rings. This is a higher percentage (39. 6%) than groups with fewer players. (We stopped in 2015 because the ROY winners since then are still looking for their first titles. )
That’s why we added a category just to this week’s Kia rookie rankings, comparing the team’s record to that of the newcomer to his mark in the same number of games last season.
Weekly Summary
• What conclusions can be drawn? First of all, there is no apparent trend. Four of the nine groups with rookies in this week’s rankings advanced on their W-L effects from last year, but four fell back down. Brandin Podziemski’s Golden State, at 34-30, is precisely where it is in 64 games. last season.
• San Antonio’s Victor Wembanyama, as one of the most observable and exciting rookies of all time with a lot of greatness to spare, failed to overtake the Spurs in the standings. And even if you just take a look at their record when they played (13-45), they went 14-44 in their first 48 games last season.
• Except in the most obvious cases, it’s tricky to isolate a rookie’s contributions to victory or defeat. In OKC, for example, has Chet Holmgren been the reason for his improvement in 14 games?Rather, it’s the final piece of the puzzle for a strong team that matures and improves around it. How do Houston’s 15 wins split between Cam Whitmore, Amen Thompson, the play of their teammates and the arrival of coach Ime Udoka?
• Portland’s Scoot Henderson has yet to find success in qualifying as injuries and a bad shot slow him down. But it’s worth noting that the Blazers are 15-30 when playing the third pick in the Class of 2023, compared to 3-16 when he hasn’t.
• A week of opportunities, as 19 rookies have averaged at least 10 points since March 6. Eleven grabbed or more rebounds per game and 8 dished out at least 3 assists per game.
Scenario to watch out for
Current and long-term MVPs. Tune in if you can Friday night when Denver plays San Antonio (8:30 a. m. ET, NBA League Pass) to see Nikola Jokic take on Wembanyama for the second of four possible games this season. Arguably the NBA’s most productive outlet, Jokic had 39 points, 11 rebounds and nine assists as the Nuggets won the opener in November. Wembanyama, projected as the successor to Jokic and Joel Embiid as a big man, scored 22 points, 11 rebounds, six steals and 4 blocks in the loss. The schedule pits their groups against each other two other times in April (April 2 and 12).
Latest Rankings
(All stats as of Tuesday, March 12)
Follow the evolution of our rookie ratings during the season.
1. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
Wembanyama had another solid week, averaging 20 points and 12 rebounds, in addition to 4. 5 assists and a 2. 0 rating. He shot just 40. 5 percent overall and 31. 3 percent on 3-pointers and the big guy drew attention to the wrong side of a rookie. Rookie pain inflicted through the Warriors’ Trayce Jackson-Davis. But here at Ladder, no player will scoff at a status company that forgoes a more flexible “business decision. “
2. Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder
His scoring average dropped and his shot dropped, however, Holmgren was at 14. 3 while on the court during OKC’s 3-1 week. His stats and highlights have taken a back seat to the Thunder team’s ambitions, and the ROY electorate soon had to weigh their victories against Wembanyama’s most impressive moments and individual numbers.
3. Brandon Miller, Charlotte Hornets
It’s bad enough to have it, and even worse now that they have it. Like so many high-profile rookies before him, Miller gets a farewell on his team’s record and is seen as the key to an eventual fix. During the week, he averaged 21 points, 6. 0 rebounds and 3. 3 assists, outpacing Holmgren on average, though he trails at -9. 0.
4. Jaime Jaquez Jr. , Miami Heat
The UCLA product of the past four years is, of course, a rookie here, but he doesn’t get noticed that way in the Heat’s locker room or, frankly, isn’t based on his contributions compared to more established NBA players. Jaquez shot 65. 4% of his tiros. la last week, going 4-for-8 from deep.
5. Derek Lively II, Dallas Mavericks
As wonderful as Luka Doncic is, he doesn’t rack up great assists without the teammates he targets scoring their shots. No one in Dallas does this more reliably than Lively in the symbiotic connection on the field the two have built. Seven of Lively’s shots in Chicago on Monday (she shot 11 of 12) came on passes from Doncic.
Next 5
6. Brandin Podziemski, Golden State Warriors
A guy who “does the little things” who, if he doesn’t take matters into his own hands, asks coaches to take on demanding situations that are effective.
7. Keyonté George, Utah Jazz
George led all rookies this week with 27. 5 points per game while shooting 55. 9% overall and 55. 6% from 3-point range.
8. Cam Whitmore, Houston Rockets
Taking advantage of the sadness of his draft position didn’t hurt Whitmore and it helped him.
9. Amen Thompson, Houston Rockets
One of Houston’s brightest tracks in Week 3-1, averaging 10. 3 tracks with a 5. 8 rating.
10. Ausar Thompson, Detroit Pistons
Strong offensive night against the Nets, minus against the Mavs, 2. 0 while the Pistons dominated as many as 14 when he sat down.
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Steve Aschburner has been writing about the NBA since 1980. You can email him here, his files here, and follow him on X.
The views expressed on this page do not necessarily reflect those of the NBA, its clubs, or Warner Bros. Discovery.