Republican Senate candidate Roger Marshall is ahead of Democrat Barbara Bollier in their open race to represent Kansas, according to a new poll.
Marshall, a House member since 2017, leads Bollier, a state senator who until 2018 was a Republican, 44% to 43%, a Public Policy Polling survey released on Friday found. While 15% of respondents remain undecided, Bollier has a double-digit advantage over Marshall among independents, 45% to 29%.
Research conducted by the firm in March before Marshall became the Republican nominee this week gave him a 10 percentage point lead on his Democratic rival, 47% to 37%. The GOP primary was a highly competitive contest that featured former Kansas State Secretary Kris Kobach, a President Trump ally, and wealthy plumbing business executive Bob Hamilton.
Friday’s poll also found Trump is ahead of presumptive 2020 Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden in Kansas, 50% to 43%.
FiveThirtyEight’s presidential Kansas polling average put Trump in front of Biden by 10.8 points. Trump dominated in Kansas four years ago by more than 20 points, seizing its six electoral votes. But even if Biden were to lose Kansas by 7 points on Nov. 3, it would still be a Democrat’s best general election performance in the state since President Gerald Ford defeated Jimmy Carter there in 1976 by roughly the same margin.
The last Democratic nominee to win Kansas was President Lyndon Johnson in his 1964 landslide victory against Republican Sen. Barry Goldwater of Arizona.
Public Policy Polling surveyed 864 Kansas voters via phone and text message from Aug. 5 to 6. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.