It was a little past 8 a.m. in Tokyo when the newest inductees to the Baseball Hall of Fame were announced.
Next year there could be some big celebrations over breakfast in Japan.
Ichiro Suzuki heads the organization of players eligible to vote within a year. That poll is also expected to include Cy Young Award winners CC Sabathia and Félix Hernández, and the last chance for reliever Billy Wagner, who lost five votes this time. .
Adrián Beltré, Todd Helton and Joe Mauer were voted in this year by members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. The results were announced Tuesday night in the eastern U.S. The time change between the Hall’s location in Cooperstown, New York, and Suzuki’s home country of Japan should be quite relevant in 2025.
The outfielder appears to be a breakout asset after surpassing 3,000 hits in the primary league and one of the biggest Asian stars to play in the United States, decades before Shohei Ohtani took the game by storm.
What is less transparent is how Sabathia and Hernández will go far. Sabathia has surpassed 250 wins and 3,000 strikeouts. Hernandez didn’t pitch as long but had a higher MPM and WHIP than Sabathia.
The BBWAA hasn’t chosen a pitcher since 2019, when Roy Halladay, Mike Mussina and Mariano Rivera entered. Given that the starters took on a smaller workload those days, it will be appealing to see how the electorate adapts. Justin Verlander thinks he has a smart chance after he retires. For Sabathia and Hernandez, it’s less clear.
“I think Sabathia is going to be a pretty strong rookie,” said Ryan Thibodaux, whose online Hall of Fame vote-tracking formula shows votes as they are made public before and after the results are announced. “I don’t know if he’ll go all the way in his first year. “
ONE MORE CHANCE
Wagner’s approval rating rose from 68. 1% to 73. 8% this year, but is still below the 75% threshold for elections. Next year is the last year on the ballot, and applicants for that position get a head start. I probably wouldn’t want to go in much.
LESS CROWDED?
In addition to Beltre, Helton and Mauer, Gary Sheffield will be absent from the polls next time around. It was his tenth and final year and he finished with 63. 9%. With only one clear frontrunner for induction, Suzuki, the remaining applicants may have only one advantage. smart chance of last in 75 percent.
This year saw a total of 1,237 “yes” votes from players who will not compete in 2025. Last year, that number was just 483, which would possibly explain why candidates like Andruw Jones (61. 6 percent), Bobby Abreu (14. 8 percent) and Andy Pettitte (13. 5 percent) seemed to be afloat a bit this time around.
Carlos Beltrán reached 57. 1%, a cumulative of more than 10%.
Thibodaux noted that the “mid-tier” newcomers to next year’s election, such as Hernandez, Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler and Troy Tulowitzki, can get a decent amount of votes, even if they don’t get elected. Candidates will have to win by 5% to remain on the electoral roll.
“I think it’s possible that among next year’s applicants there will be more people earning five percent than the same people,” Thibodaux said. “I think overall this will be a year where (remaining) applicants will have a chance to win votes. This wasn’t one of those years at all. “
IT’S GETTING LATE
Chase Utley has gotten just 28. 8 approval ratings in his election so far, but he has plenty of time to build on that figure. Abreu, Pettitte and Jimmy Rollins (14. 8%) are further along in the process.
Abreu has been on the list for five years (halfway through the 10-year limit) and Pettitte for six years. It’s Rollins’ third year.
“If (Abreu) needs to act, he’ll probably have to do it now,” Thibodaux said. “Sheffield, he started to make his first big leap at that time. Obviously, that wasn’t enough for him. Now would be the time for signs of progress to start appearing. “
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