Investors in the automotive industry expect a global “V” recovery from the coronavirus crisis to appear to materialize for at least some time, there are fears that it will stall further before the end of the year.
This is the view of industry forecasters, who expect global sales in 2021 to return to 2019 grades after the virus caused unprecedented chaos in the first part of 2020.
Global sales of new cars fell 25-30% in the first part of the year, adding 15% in China, 24% in the United States and 40% in Europe, according to Fitch Ratings.
In 2019, global sales totaled about 90 million light cars (sedan, SUVs and trucks) that are expected to fall to 75 million this year and 84 million in 2021, automotive forecaster LMC Automotivee said.
“We expect a recovery by 2020 and 2021, albeit at a point of decline than before the pandemic. We assume that global sales of new cars will fall by around 20% by 2020, as the recovery will be constrained through the unfavourable economic environment in the coming quarters,” Emmanuel Bulle, an analyst at Fitch Ratings, said in a report.
LMC Automotive is also optimistic, with a trail of moderation.
“The speed of recovery, given the nature of the pandemic shock, was strangely strong. However, the key question is whether this point of sale can be maintained and will be maintained. Our forecast for 2020 has been raised due to the expected bounce, however, a cooling era is most likely beyond the new months,” says an LMC Automotive report.
Investment bank UBS said Europe’s recovery driven by electric vehicle sales increased through giant government subsidies and economic stimulus programs. He’s also afraid of losing momentum by the end of the year.
“The investor debate now is whether positive momentum can be maintained or whether the decline in the so-called repressed and the effect on stimulus can lead to a slowdown in the part of the year,” said UBS analyst Patrick Hummel.
Hummel said growing sales of electric power mean that the maximum primary car brands will be meeting their EU-established car carbon dioxide (CO2) emission targets and will therefore run out of substantial fines.
But falling sales will weigh heavily on the basics of production and will affect profits.
“The decline in revenue will strongly affect the absorption of constant prices and have a significant effect on the profitability of the sector by 2020. We believe that the combined operating margin of the sector could fall to around 2% this year, compared to 5.5% -7% since 2010 The resumption of profitability will have the good luck of cost-cutting projects and the resilience of value. We expect operating margin to recover to around 4% in 2021 and more than 5% by 2022,” Fitch Ratings said. Bulle.
“Automakers continue to face large investments to address basic adjustments in the sector, adding the immediate progression of new power trains, autonomous vehicles, car ownership bureaucracy and new mobility services. Moreover, the global geopolitical context remains uncertain and the dangers associated with the UK’s resolve to leave the EU and other potential global industry conflicts remain serious,” Bulle said.
LMC Automotive said the U.S. recovery She was affected by a new impulse through Covid-19. He also reiterated his nervousness over the fragility of recovery.
“The direct economy of governments will be limited. When employment and business systems are terminated or reduced, a new macroeconomic downturn may arise, which will harm the need for underlying vehicles,” LMC said.
As a former European Reuters correspondent, I spent a few years writing about the industry. I’ll penetrate the hype and arrogance and find
As a former European automotive correspondent for Reuters, I spent a few years writing about the industry. I’m going to get to the hype and the bragging of the corporations and find out how those gigantic corporations are doing. I also like to drive your adorable machines and your maximum modesty. I’ll tell you if the generation works too.