But there’s an explanation for why all four groups are in action this weekend, as long as they adopt a smart tactic.
Here’s what Fox Footy’s Ultimate Preview said about the two semi-finals.
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RICHMOND v ST KILDA
How do the Saints win?
St Kilda has transparent merit over stops over Richmond, a flashy moment in the AFL for transparencies (Tigers 16) and sixth for making stops (Tigers 14).
However, the Tigers defended the saves well, thanks in part to their dominant interception position, however, when the latter is canceled, so is the former.
Against Brisbane, prime ministers did not take a singles intercept mark in their 50 defenses, thanks to Brisbane’s use of one end.
The Tigers usually retreat with one end, giving them an additional type in defense and releasing an intercept score, while the opponent helps keep their end standing. The challenge then is to move the ball forward and send it to the Trap Tigers.
“Richmond needs to have an extra advocate, they need to have one more one, so they use their end,” Leigh Montagna said on Fox Footy.
“That’s Marlion Pickett as an end in the hallway. He must return and play extra to lose Grimes or Vlastuin to intercept.
“Brisbane went wing after wing, so it’s the end of Brisbane who plays as a striker. . . that means they can’t start their interception game.
“It takes away the greatest strength Richmond. No get that plus one to intercept the mark, but it starts its bounce. This gives Bashar Houli, Jayden Short and Liam Baker confidence to get on their motorcycles and get on the open side. “
If the Saints fit the numbers of their previous 50, they have two imaginable positive results.
They can count on Max King and his teammates taking intercept marks (their 21 opponents of the Bulldogs have been the maximum of any team this year) or King for small eaves like Dan Butler to score the ball on the ground.
How do tigers win?
No doubt Damien Hardwick will start his scoring game at both ends of the box.
The Tigers “failed for the first time this year” against the Lions, failing to register a singles intercept mark for the first time since 2014, when they had five problems in their 50s before.
The latter had a strong impact from the absence of Tom Lynch (leaving Jack Riewoldt as the main target) and by Harris Andrews’ option to leave Mabior Chol to overtake Riewoldt’s team.
This time, the script is reversed, with the Tigers winning Lynch for this game while the Saints lose one of their main defenders to Jake Carlisle.
“They lost the front 50. No know if it’s similar to target or variety because they had bad participants who didn’t have good night,” David King said on Fox Footy.
“Lynch’s return gives Jack a lot of support. Jack only took two internal 50 problems, they (the Lions) knew where he was going and it’s possible they just got over it.
“The opposite is happening this week. Lynch comes in, takes two jack takes two, and then you have the luxury of (Dustin) Martin moving on. “
Martin will also be crucial, as he will need to be in shape before he has not done so this season.
After hitting first, first and fore in the AFL by scores in 2017-19, Norm Smith’s two-time medalist is the 14th in 2020 It’s great, but not so revolutionary.
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CATS GEELONG vs. COLLINGWOOD
How do cats win?
That was disguised through the accuracy of the Magpies and the relative inaccuracy of the Eagles last week, but it was a smart night for West Coast strikers.
Jack Darling and Josh Kennedy won their battles against Jordan Roughead and Jack Madgen, taking seven combined problems in 50 and 12 shots at the door.
With vulnerable key defenders, Tom Hawkins will be (as always) very important to the Cats, and Hawkins Island, where he has as much area as you can imagine to be one-on-one at 50, may be in effect.
Collingwood’s defenders join their strikers in the area, unlike a team like Richmond, who like to have additional numbers in defense to start their interception game.
“It’s an opportunity to create that area (for Hawkins to work), because Collingwood is too disciplined to move in with rival strikers,” Nick Riewoldt said on Fox Footy.
The last two times Hawkins faced the Magpies, he didn’t score a goal, yet he kicked 0. 4 on five shots in last year’s qualifying final, showing his chances.
Meanwhile, the home and away game this season in rainy situations and the Cats surrendered in the contest, recording only 31 inmates in the 1950s, giving Hawkins no chance.
“If they get the right situations and can win the clearances, I think Hawkins will have another day and kick,” Leigh Montagna said on Fox Footy.
Where Chris Scott sends Patrick Dangerfield will be vital.
In the last four games, Dangerfield has basically played as a striker (but only): 34% in midfield against Essendon, 51% against Richmond, 47% against Sydney and 67% against Port Adelaide.
Since the Magpies have temporarily started in their last two games opposed to the Cats, sending Dangerbox to the middle of the area early may be to win saves and gain ground.
Then there’s the consultation of Mark Blicavs, a family consultation for Geelong enthusiasts in the final.
“If there’s one thing I’m not convinced about yet through Geelong’s training staff, it’s whether Blicavs can face Grundy and Cameron in the fray,” Montagna said.
“Rhys Stanley has made progress and Blicavs has taken most of the raids and high balls. In his last few weeks he doesn’t get much ball, doesn’t generate clearings and doesn’t put it in his hands like a number one ruckman.
“I wonder if I need to see Esava Ratugolea back on that side. Ratugolea and Stanley like their two rucks, then Blicavs will go back to where he is an All-Australian, is the defender of his team and can play in Jordan De Goey, who will be the winner (for Collingwood).
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How do magpies win?
A quick start would be incredibly convenient for magpies, and they’ve had one the last two times they’ve faced Geelong.
In the seventh innings this year, the Magpies scored the first two goals and led 18 at half-time on a low-scoring issue, as they scored the first three goals of last year’s qualifying final.
“The last two times they came out and punched them in the mouth. From the beginning. They took the lead in the room and put Geelong on the back foot,” Jonathan Brown on Fox Footy.
This was due to the mastery of detention, but not in the same way as ever, with Scott Pendlebury used defensively to nullify the Cats’ maximum harmful extractor, Patrick Dangerfied.
“Tactically, Nathan Buckley has done it the last two times,” David King said on Fox Footy.
“Not many other people think Scott Pendlebury is a labeler, yet he goes to (Patrick) Dangerfield in every prevention and tries to lock him up. “
This, in turn, frees Taylor Adams to face Joel Selwood, a war Adams proved he could win. In last year’s qualifying final, Adams massively with 26 eliminations, two goals, nine clearings and 16 possessions.
Meanwhile, Adam Treloar (11 clears against the Cats in his last game) still happens to locate the area and football in this game.
Jordan De Goey can be important with 50 saves before, Jake Kololdjashnij was in the rhythm of the task through Chris Scott, who did not paint at the previous Cats and Magpies assembly earlier this year.
He might not have an opponent at Nic Naitanui’s point to face, but Brodie Grundy has yet to face Rhys Stanley of the Cats.
The former All-Australian replaced by key rebounds from downtown to 10th man Darcy Cameron opposite the West Coast, but is expected to be physically competitive on Saturday night.
“It’ll have to be a Rhys Stanley monster. I’ll have to be right about himArray . . . they would be pleased to do so (replace him with Darcy Cameron), no doubt,” Brown said.
Finally, the Cats have been the worst AFL team to protect the movement of the ball from defensive 50 to the front 50 from circular 14, so if the Magpies move the ball at top speed, it may simply paint in their favor.
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