There was a time when “AV trucks” were considered something unique, i. e. driverless long-distance trucks. Those days are now in the rearview mirror. Instances of truck use suitable for automated driving are proliferating rapidly. In this latest installment of my Reality Check on Autonomous Vehicles series, I’m going to stretch out to wrap my arms around it all, in an effort to give some perspective. In an in-depth company-by-company review, this article focuses more on instances of automated truck usage that show varying degrees of momentum.
Fasten your seat belt. I’ll start with off-road instances that are very useful here and now, as are some surface street operations. instances of use for driverless operations (also known as “Level 4” or “L4”), which will be vital to define long-term success.
Off-road use cases
Given the unpaved terrain, the off-road use case would arguably not be an undeniable operating environment, but at least there is no public traffic to manage, no vehicle protection rules. Mining, structure, agriculture and similar advertising operations are experiencing a boom in the application of automated driving, the first advertising automated trucks were brought more than a decade ago through Caterpillar and Komatsu, providing monster mining transport trucks. In recent years, Pronto. ai, SafeAI and RRAI have become active in this area to cater to other shipping desires across a variety of vehicle types and sizes. So far, only SafeAI has announced customers, such as Japanese corporate structure Obayashi.
Brands of trucks and heavy appliances have been in this game for some time. Nils Jaeger, President of Volvo Autonomous Solutions (VAS), a subsidiary of the Volvo Group, recently unveiled its multi-vertical strategy for automated trucks. VAS’s first foray is to provide off-road autonomy for the quarrying and mining industry. Since 2018, VAS has been supplying autonomous trucks to the Bronnoy Kalk mine in Norway, until now with a protective driving force in the cab. Another operation is underway in Switzerland.
The dynamics of time create business opportunities. While OEMs are likely to take their time to bring new products to market, there is now a call for business autonomy. SafeAI has already entered the off-road market by upgrading customers’ existing cars with autonomy. capacity.
Trailer change: off-road
Another facet of automated off-road operations is the “trailer movement” in logistics centers. In this use case, automated tractors autonomously connect to trailers to move them between loading dock doors and on-site garage areas. These cars work one hundred percent. Fernride, ISEE, Outrider and RRAI are the leading corporations active in this area that I know of. Fernride has an ongoing pilot assignment with DB Schenker in the Netherlands. ISEE has announced pilot assignments with Maersk and Lazer Spot. Outrider has conducted extensive testing with Georgia-Pacific and other leading corporations in the parcel, retail/eCommerce and production industries. Lately, RRAI is structuring a new autonomous logistics and distribution facility for product development, visitor demonstrations, automation. Specific testing and education of structural trucks, Class 8 cars and complex trailers for warehouses, haulage, ports and other last m Ile/first mile environments.
I’ve spoken to truck fleet executives who prefer to try structure tractors first, to dive into audio-visual waters before hitting the public road at their best. I have the impression that there are a few dozen automated structure tractors that are lately operating on late-stage pilot projects with customers, which will probably move on to production purchases.
The role of remote control and assistance
Depending on the specifications of an implementation, remote driving can be for off-road and towing operations, however, to my knowledge, most developers concentrate on onboard autonomy. With or without remote driving, a “remote support” serves as it can allow human monitors to supply operational data as needed to ensure optimal efficiency.
Running on public roads: streets
The public symbol of truck automation has been that of giant robots hurtling down an abandoned road somewhere in the southwestern United States.
Trucks that ship boxes from seaports or rail terminals to warehouses and distribution centers. In some cases, those “transportation” movements occur in large logistics facilities that are confined personal environments. In many other cases, trucks move boxes short distances on local roads. There is a similar use case in the movement of goods between a portion factory and the main production facility in a production region, as is the case with automobile production. Moving excavated curtains from the point of extraction to a job site may also require short road trips. These instances of use are technically viable for implementation now, potentially without much need for regulatory approval. Einride recently announced such operations in Tennessee, shuttling back and forth between the conveniences of its consumer General Electric. VAS’s Jaeger notes that such operations are critical to the vertical moment of his strategy. In this use case, remote driving can be thought of as if vehicle speeds are adjusted to the latency of communications with the remote center.
The maximum active use case for trucking on local streets is for repetitive trips between distribution centers and local stores, driven by the rise of e-commerce. Gatik has championed this use case, taking its supply beyond the progression and piloting stages towards a fully implemented and revenue-generating driverless movement of goods. Walmart was its first visitor, with fully driverless operations starting in 2021 in Arkansas. This year, Gatik announced Georgia-Pacific, KBX and Pitney-Bowes as new consumers in the Texas market and began driverless deliveries with Loblaw, Canada’s largest retailer, with whom he has operated since 2020 in Ontario. Isuzu is supplying L4-ready medium-duty trucks to Gatik. The company said its investment picture gives it “three to four years” of investment track, which expects “aggressive growth” in visitor transactions. I asked Gautam Narang, Gatik’s co-founder and CEO, what “aggressive growth” really means. He said they “expect truckloads to be deployed in advertising operations until the end of next year. “
Udelv is a street-level autonomy player, featuring a “cable-free standalone delivery EV for hop-on, last and middle hop-on hop-off delivery routes. “In early 2022, Belgian logistics service provider Ziegler Group placed an order for ten Udelv aircraft carriers.
Freeway running: lots of driving
When it comes to trucks on the road, autonomous driving takes many forms. The instances of use sought vary depending on the assistance levels of the motive force, the operational design area, and the operations of various trucks.
An attractive intermediate step in applying autonomy to topway driving is known as fully automated driving (HAD). In early 2021, the developer of autonomous driving Plus introduced a product called PlusDrive that uses Intent L4 hardware and software to necessarily carry out all highway driving responsibilities (lane driving, lane changes, merging traffic adaptation, etc) while the formula is overseen through a contracted motive force through the fleet visitor. So in terms of how it works, it’s a Tier 2 implementation. ” PlusDrive is designed using our self-driving software, which we’ve forced to run under the supervision of a driving force. pro for this advertising product to improve safety, economy fuel economy and powertrain comfort,” said Shawn Kerrigan, COO and co-founder of Plus, adding that PlusDrive “is about helping powertrains, not replacing them. ” Major benefits also stem from Plus’s L4 validation and progression process, given the higher mileage accrued through each truck supplied with PlusDrive. PlusDrive’s first visitor was Amazon; deliveries began in 2021 and continued through 2022.
Driver assistance systems of this type go far beyond the complex motive force assistance systems in newer truck models, as the AI rhythms of L4 intent systems continuously adjust more intelligently and expand the capability of over-the-air updates. Tesla’s Autopilot would be similar. HAD supply with AI technology if enabled on the Tesla Semi.
I have no doubt that truck OEMs will offer similar HAD products, but adopt a step-by-step technique for several years. A similar path, as a way to get to market faster and generate revenue, and to satisfy the appetite of truck fleets to have at least an initial edition of automated trucks in their hands.
This month, Embark announced that it provided automated trucks to spouse and investor Knight-Swift (KS), one of the largest truck fleets in North America. Like PlusDrive, the trucks are operated by drivers hired through the fleet who oversee automated driving. The CEO of . Embark, Alex Rodriguez, said that “the purposes will be activated gradually: first, control of track operations merges and intervenes, and then the transition to full multichannel capacity when regulations allow. “KS was the initiator here as it sought to compare cars in their daily operations. It also gave Embark the formula opportunity, for example, by enabling a commissioning procedure that doesn’t require an engineer on the circuit. As for KS, Rodriguez notes that “this is a definite step to be in a position to use L4 when you commercially implement our technology. “It points out that, unlike Plus, its HAD formula is not a product and is presented to potential consumers in very low volume.
Highway Driving: Automated Transport
The use of generation trucks for shipment (or platoon) has been vigorously pursued over the past decade. Localization is now the dominant player. According to the online page Locomation, its autonomous relay convoys (ARC) are convoys of two trucks with a lead truck and a follower truck and two driving forces. Both trucks are supplied with a range formula and are electronically connected so they move together. A motive force drives the lead truck while a momentary driving force rests “off the clock” in the next truck. Periodically, trucks replace stalls to allow each motive force to take turns driving the convoy or resting. This allows for greater use of trucks and available driving hours. Several fleets, in addition to Wilson Logistics, Stevens Trucking and Christensen Transportation, have signed up for ARC formula deliveries. Considering the ARC as an interim commercial style before the expanded deployment of L4 via a single truck, Locomation said the first games would be delivered to Wilson Logistics beyond 2023.
Running on motorways: punctual autonomy
L4 autonomy on the open road is sought through startups Aurora, Embark, Kodiak, Plus, TuSimple, Waabi and Waymo, as well as all classic truck OEMs. Let’s take a look at the players heading to the L4 motorway.
Aurora expects its autonomous driving generation to be “complete” by the end of the first quarter of 2023. With a final phase of thorough validation next year, they plan to start the driverless business according to the standards in 2024. Aurora works with corporations such as FedEx, Uber Freight, Schneider, Werner and US Xpress. Currently, the company transports cargo 22 times per week for those consumers and that number is expected to rise to one hundred per week by the end of next year. Aurora is under the microscope because it is publicly traded. Reacting to the recent press skeptical about its future, CEO Chris Urmson said that “Aurora plans to remain independent and has the capital that allows us to weather the existing typhoon in the capital markets. “
Also indexed on the inventory exchange, Embark called it “less than useless” via Crunchbase News. Alas! I’m not a market gourmet, but to me it turns out to be an artifact of the clumsiness of a company that has yet to introduce a publicly traded product. Given its strengths, Embark is in an enviable position given its close association with Knight-Swift. When the Embark generation proves to be physically powerful and ready to use, it is moderate to expect KS to implement it in driverless operations. As a lead investor, KS can play a stimulating role on the road to profitability. Your price valuation can mean much more than the noises coming from Wall Street.
Kodiak manages extensive shipping operations in Texas and Oklahoma as its L4 system matures. Kodiak trucks ship goods for Werner, IKEA, Pilot, U. S. Xpress, CEVA Logistics and 10 Roads Express. Department of Defense to automate the armed forces’ robot combat vehicles. This investment will prove helpful as we technify ad launches “within the next two years,” as CEO Don Burnette said on this month’s TTNews Automate online forum.
TuSimple is a Gothic novel in its own right. The company has high-performance technology, but it has serious control problems. Its flagship OEM partnership with Navistar/Traton, very fashionable when it was first announced in 2020, is gone. Over time, they can get out of the hole they have dug. .
There have been many discussions on the internet about TuSimple’s twist of fate earlier this year, with many voices claiming that the incident proves that TuSimple essentially intended to drive alone all those years. But dig deeper, and that statement doesn’t hold up. TuSimple’s crash was the result of a procedural error enabling autonomy. Such an error would never have been possible, and TuSimple was justly condemned in this case. Since this problem and accident occurred, I have heard chair judges speculate that all of TuSimple’s talents are below average. Wait, though: a procedural lapse tells us nothing about how the automated driving formula itself works when driving on the road. Colleagues who have really enjoyed the TuSimple formula on the road tell me that he is a very capable driver. They also remind me that TuSimple’s L4 formula has traveled millions of miles without incident. At this point, I’m not taking sides, but I also absolutely don’t reject TuSimple.
Waabi is the new kid in the neighborhood. Although they were late, they insist that their progression technique based on simulation and infusion of artificial intelligence will get them to the first product fairly quickly. They quietly court truck fleets while the rest of us wait and see.
Waymo Via is in a very strong position thanks to the continuity of Alphabet. Its partnership with dominant freight broker C. H. Robinson will create a power plant once Waymo’s initial L4 product is launched. A similar partnership with Uber Freight adds more strength. Waymo is ready L4 trucks manufactured for them have been delivered through Daimler. Waymo gave no indication of the timing and duration of a production acquisition of Daimler, nor a full advertising release date. Waymo Via also states on its online page that it will target any type of freight transport by truck; So they may only have compatibility with the instances of surface street usage I’ve discussed here if they see advertising potential.
What about truck manufacturers?
Unlike startups, OEMs are unlikely to find themselves in a basic currency crisis; Their source of income comes from the sale of normal trucks. Of course, their budgets for diversity systems will have to be sold within the organization, and the money you will have to produce autonomy depends on other internal investments in electric powertrains and a myriad of other priorities.
Daimler, Iveco, PACCAR, Traton and Volvo truck brands are very active in automated transport. These corporations are primarily primary truck suppliers to North America and Europe. And there are newcomers to the electric powertrain space, such as Nikola and Tesla, who will likely offer some sort of motive power assistance or automated driving to be applicable in today’s industry.
Daimler Trucks focuses on dual carriageway operations. Martin Daum, CEO of Daimler Trucks North America, says his technique for long-distance diversity has a moderate time frame that he expects to evolve “within a decade. “Daimler has been the truck industry leader in introducing high-tech systems. Significantly, they have two strong horses to ride when it comes to VA: Torc and Waymo.
Partnerships with startups have been the norm.
Traton evaluates after ending the TuSimple relationship; More on this below.
At last September’s IAA event in Europe, a joint press release noted that PlusDrive had been incorporated into the S-WAY truck for testing on public roads, which “paves the way for IVECO and Plus to produce a semi-autonomous product as a first step and get ready to build fully autonomous vehicles.
PACCAR plans to introduce range with the Aurora driver. For the Volvo Group, the dual carriageway road is the third of the 3 verticals that Jaeger has talked about from VAS; his horse is also Aurora.
This month, Volvo Group made a major announcement that it will partner with Uber Freight “to test its autonomous hub-to-center supply in which Volvo will provide autonomous charging capacity to Uber Freight carriers. “As I perceive it, the implications of this resolution are very significant, that a truck manufacturer becomes a freight carrier and not just a truck seller. The possible effects of such action have been debated since the first prototype AV truck hit the road. As noted above, Volvo already has a toe in the water with shipping mining equipment into operations in Europe. Will Volvo road consumers come to see their supplier as a competitor?While this resolution might make business sense for Volvo, relations with visitors can also be very difficult to manage.
What’s on my radar?
For those who need to keep an eye on this space, here are some key issues and questions.
Walmart, Loblaw and other carriers with repetitive road trips are the first in the world to take advantage of automated transportation. It is natural for any up-and-coming vertical to have multiple bidders; In fact, the final visitor seeks to discharge greater situations through the competition. So, I’m looking at the competition to enter the area that Gatik now exclusively inhabits. Gatik has a strong first-mover advantage, having forged deep visitor relationships with such forward-thinking carriers throughout North America. This would not have happened if the business style and generation had not been effectively challenged through a rigorous validation process. Still, it’s a “big cake” so I’m still waiting who else will show up. In fact, Robotaxi players have strong features in street driving, although their existing people transport operations deserve to be adapted to the specifics of local freight transport. The first component in this series highlighted Amazon looking to start independent local freight operations with a component yet to be announced. And, component two of this series noted that Waymo and Aurora are developing an automated engine for cars, which can be adapted for van operations on city streets. No doubt those corporations and others like them are weighing the pros and cons of entering this potentially lucrative use case; there is a lot of local shipping there.
Almost all road-focused startups have strategic partnerships with trucking companies and/or carriers. Aurora, Gatik, Plus and Waymo also have strategic partnerships with primary truck OEMs. Will we see truck OEMs take the position of providing multiple functions to their consumers for automated driving capability?Now they’re doing this with engines and other major components. If they opt for Los Angeles’ à la carte autonomy, it paves the way for other OEM-startup partnerships. Basically, there is the option of an acquisition. for the same purpose.
In the road space, what role will highly automated driving play in terms of profits for those who offer it?Available now, will HAD act as a springboard for the adoption of complete L4 systems?And, if HAD has strong adoption, will it motivate truck OEMs to push their own implementation of those systems?
In the short term, it will be desirable to see what happens to Traton and its U. S. subsidiary Navistar, now that it has ended its generation partnership with TuSimple. I am sure they are not sitting in your hands; They seek to play a vital role in the AV truck market as a strategic necessity.
For on-highway operations, existing efforts aim at automating long “ramp-to-ramp” trips, supplemented by moving cargo to human-driven trucks for the last mile. Some AV developers have also claimed that they have the ability to move a lot “from one platform to another”, that is, driverless, either in the long term and in the last mile. This “dock to dock” skill is the Holy Grail; Shippers don’t need to adapt their operations to generation, they need generation to adapt to their existing operations. TuSimple’s message has announced the arrival on the market of a dock-to-dock solution. Other startups are focusing on ramp-to-ramp for initial system introductions. Long-distance AV players that can offer port-to-port connection will enjoy a significant competitive advantage.
What happens along the way?
Compared to passenger transport, the appearance of cargo is much more definitive. If the build works seamlessly and integrates seamlessly into load operations, the deployment will expand. temporarily expand their AV operations in more than 20 countries in which they operate. The same goes for giants like Amazon and the other carriers mentioned above. I expect to see a really extensive expansion of the B2B street delivery use case in 2023.
If there are regulatory hurdles along the way, I expect those carriers to play an increasingly important role in advocating for a favorable regulatory regime. It is necessarily silent on the factor and state governments have explicitly legalized it. But the industry is looking for a more definitive long-term approach. Consider Walmart, Loblaw, Georgia Pacific, Knight-Swift, and all the other major carriers and carriers discussed here. : Together, they are a vital voice at the table of regulators and legislators. They will force full demonstration that motive power jobs are not in danger and that an improved supply chain and more sustainable movement of goods are achieved through automated driving. being alone; Car brands will also actively advocate for complete regulation for AV vehicles.
Every new store and truck fleet that starts hauling driverless goods on public roads increases the credibility of AV vehicles. So, for each of the use cases discussed here, I focus my attention on visitor adoption as the main indicator of progress. In addition to driverless driving, to what extent is it incorporated into day-to-day logistics operations?Does it apply to the entire company or, if not, what gets in the way?When an implementation partnership is announced, many steps within the visitor’s organization have already been taken to ensure the validity and protection of the autonomous driving system, as well as the adequacy to real logistical needs. For stores in particular, your logo is at stake if a driverless truck adorned with your logo performs a detrimental maneuver or obstructs motorists’ driving. However, this potential demerit has similar merit to reduced operating costs, which improves your profits.
2024 appears to be the launch window for driverless advertising cars on the roads, if Aurora and Kodiak’s statements are approved according to plan. As a result, 2023 will see a significant percentage of driverless operations when the latest roadside validation tests are conducted. OEMs will remain their release dates close to the chest, but I’d be very surprised if they moved sooner. Waymo walks towards its own drummer, and if I had to bet, I’d bet they’ll be the first to move here, even in the next year.
You may have noticed that this series of articles does not largely address the very difficult monetary situations within this industry. My colleagues remind me that “money is everything” when it comes to startups. In the part of the moment, I said that “the implementation phase of AV cars used by other people will be carried out through players with a deep wallet who can play the long game. Companies with cash, counterfeit technology and patient ownership can stay in the game. function in the existing economic climate. This declaration also applies to driverless trucks.
Historically, the typical high-money players in trucking have been vehicle manufacturers, primary truck fleets, and carriers. You can see from the data presented here that the type of promoter-agitator is in the game for his own professional reasons. These other people aren’t blind about cool robots; They have things to move and they want them to move more efficiently, quickly and cost-effectively than they are today.
Economic uncertainty aside, what typhoon clouds could appear on the horizon for autonomous vehicles?In general, I see the generation moving forward. Strange movements through Congress or USDOT can have a negative effect, but I don’t see any serious option for that to happen. More importantly, a serious crash or series of minor crashes will be a setback for individual developers. Worse, if there is a twist of fate at some point or other events that make the public feel unsafe, the industry will have to intervene in the situation. Such a phaseback would involve the implementation of technological adjustments, more testing, and extensive public survey and education campaigns. If such a situation occurs, I don’t see it as a shutdown of the industry, I see it as a slowdown in product introduction based on a lot of caution. Today’s USDOT AV destination turn reporting needs allow us all to stay on top of protection performance. So far, the protection record of those who already drive without motive power is good.
Back to reality: summary
After the transportation of other people and goods in this Reality Check series, we find that driverless operations are taking place lately in both spaces, but with a very small geographical footprint. Demand spaces will be key to scaling, which, if all goes according to plan, is the path to profitability. Profitable operations lead to extensive service expansions.
My backline? At a slow but steady pace, in large portions of the posh society, we are still on the way to a transition to driverless operations that satisfy other people’s desires for mobility and the logistical desires of companies. A strong industry overall continues to mature, amid significant uncertainty for individual generation developers.
Disclosure: I am and/or shareholder of Gatik, Outrider, Plus and RRAI.