Electric vehicle leader Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) will make deliveries in the second quarter this week, with estimates pointing to a year-over-year decline from last year.
Tesla analysts and experts are calculating their estimates ahead of the long-awaited report. Benzinga spoke with an expert about the factors needed to make accurate estimates.
Making accurate Tesla estimates: While many automakers report vehicle production and deliveries on a monthly or quarterly basis, corporate figures are not as closely tracked as those of EV maker TeslaArray.
Analyst consensus estimates are for 441,000 Tesla deliveries in the second quarter. Using data from several prominent analysts, Tesla lists a compiled consensus estimate of 437,812 sets for the second quarter.
“The consensus figure of 441,000 includes estimates from two months ago,” Teslike told Benzinga.
Teslike said Tesla conducts an analyst survey at the end of the quarter, but that this time it was not conducted due to changes in Tesla’s investor relations department.
One of the most important variables in the second quarter may simply be shipments to China, with some analysts predicting something of a mini-recovery for the region.
“It’s not exactly a recovery. Tesla’s sales in China this year are pretty much in line with last year’s numbers, but they are lower. “
Tesla’s delivery estimate expert uses a variety of resources to make his estimates, adding VIN numbers, vehicle registration knowledge in 26 countries, production and sales stages, inventory, export knowledge, shipping knowledge, media resources, and convention calls.
“I oversee Tesla’s sales in all countries and Tesla’s production in all factories. I’m obsessed with Tesla and I love Google Sheets. “
Teslike has an average error of 1. 2% in production and 2. 7% in deliveries over the last 12 quarters.
“My production estimates are more accurate. I use the identity numbers of the vehicles to calculate production and it works well. “
Why it matters: Second-quarter effects are the next catalyst for Tesla, although many analysts are already anticipating the company’s Robtaxi day on August 8.
“The market expects prices to be around $25,000, which will help stimulate greater demand for electric vehicles from visitors and generate pressure on competitors, especially those with negative gross margins,” said Andrés Sheppard, an analyst at Cantor. Fitzgerald.
The analyst has a high score and a price target of $230.
Sheppard doesn’t expect a robotaxi to roll out until 2027, but sees the upcoming launch as “a significant business segment” for Tesla in the long term.
Wells Fargo forecasts a slower expansion of Tesla due to lower demand.
Analyst Colin Langan has an underweight score and a price target of $120.
“We engage in recent trends toward moderation in the three key regions (U. S. , EU, China),” Langan said.
The analyst said that the competitive festival in China could also continue to have an effect on Tesla.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives is among those who Chinese earnings could provide a mini rebound in Tesla’s second quarter.
The analyst estimates that Tesla’s second-quarter deliveries correspond to Street estimates of 435,000 units.
“If we looked at the June quarter, we saw signs that Tesla prices stabilized over the past few months, as it appears that the largest percentage of price declines are now in the rearview mirror,” Ives said.
Ives is ahead of the Aug. 8 event.
The analyst said robotaxi day may be key to returning Tesla to a $1 trillion valuation, with autonomous visions and FSD “taking over Tesla. “
“While next week’s delivery numbers are very important, Street is starting to talk about Tesla’s next expansion engine, which is now forming with the worst forecast of a fall in the rearview mirror heading into the second part of the year. “
TSLA price action: Tesla shares rose 6% to $209. 86 on Monday, to a 52-week trading range of $138. 80 to $299. 29. Tesla shares are down 18% over the past year and down 16% year-to-date in 2024.
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