European automakers expect sales in the European Union (EU) to fall 1% this year after previously expecting a return to expansion. charging infrastructure.
ACEA, the organization of European automakers known by its French acronym, joined the echo chamber and expects weak sales in Europe in 2022, but did not try to wait for 2023. The outlook for car and SUV sales looks weak.
Professor Ferdinand Dudenhoeffer, director of the Center for Automotive Research (CAR) in Duisberg, Germany, presents it this way.
“The threat of Europe falling into recession is high. The war in Ukraine and related increases in energy costs hit industry and plunged the economy into a downward spiral. The fight against inflation is the great challenge for top central banks and will build up considerably. There is little argument for investors to inspire the acquisition of auto stocks,” Dudenhoeffer said.
The same can be said for consumers. Anyone buying a new car will likely wait another year before replacing the old one.
ACEA president and BMW CEO Oliver Zipse did not say what government aid he wanted or how much would be spent on electric charging.
“To return to expansion, with an even higher percentage of EV sales so that climate targets can be met, we urgently want to establish the right framework conditions,” ACEA President Zipse said at an ACEA reception on Thursday.
“These come with increased resilience of European origin chains, a European law on critical raw fabrics that ensures the strategy for raw fabrics needed for electric mobility, and accelerated deployment of charging infrastructure,” Zipse said.
ACEA cut its EU sales forecast and now expects a 1% drop to 9. 6 million for the year. Due to the demanding situations of Brexit, the coronavirus pandemic, semiconductor bottlenecks and the war in Ukraine, sales in the EU have fallen by 26% since 2019.
LMC Automotive’s forecast for Western Europe, which includes the EU’s four largest markets Germany, France, Italy and Spain, as well as Britain, has deteriorated since the beginning of the year, when it expected false sales growth of 8. 6%. The Russian invasion of Ukraine destroyed it. Its latest forecast of a 5. 9% decline for the year to 9. 96 million cars is a slight improvement from the 6. 2% drop expected last month.
LMC Automotive has not attempted express predictions for 2023, but it does imply times for the industry.
“While source constraints still dictate the speed of vehicle sales, demand is also eroding due to low customer confidence, high inflation, emerging energy costs, and tight financial policy. By 2023, although we expect source-side disruptions to subside, declining demand is most likely to update points of origin as the main obstacle to sales,” LMC said in a report.
Bernstein Research said order books are down in Europe and the currency effects of the next third quarter will be more flattering to fool.
These effects will likely be the last positives for some time. They will inflate through unprecedented conditions. The chip shortage influenced big overall sales targets and forced most automakers to sell fewer vehicles, but made sure they had a commonly high maximum margin. vehicles
Bernstein Research sees a smart chance that major European brands will avoid electricity-related blackouts, but fears they could run into trouble in 2023.
“The EBIT (earnings before interest and tax) of the EU sector is a 20% to 30% decrease in our estimates,” said Bernstein Research.
CAR’s Dudenhoeffer said German sales in 2022 will fall to around 2. 5 million, the worst in 30 years, with no recovery in sight until 2024.
“The providential earnings times of the last 2 years will be over,” Dudenhoeffer said.