If Elon Musk can fully realize his plan to make Tesla’s Robotaxi the new preferred mode of transportation, he could end the ride-sharing economy as we know it.
But some analysts are convinced that Tesla can disappoint Uber, Lyft or Waymo.
On Thursday, Musk unveiled Tesla’s driverless taxi and a 20-seat Robovan at Warner Bros. studio in Burbank, California.
Customers can take a robotaxi and use it for as long as they need, whether for a short or full day, Musk said.
The good fortune of Musk’s self-driving taxi vision on Tesla’s progress in autonomous technology. However, Jefferies analysts wrote in a note Thursday that the electric vehicle giant had “ambitious goals, but little evidence of viability. “
They said Tesla has not provided evidence of how it plans to increase autonomy levels, making the company less of a risk to existing transportation service providers like Uber.
“We believe this contributes to minimizing the existing surplus of Uber movements due to TSLA’s aspirations in the Robot-Taxi case,” the analysts wrote through John Colantooni.
Other analysts have questioned the timeline for Robotaxis, pointing to Musk’s history of missing targets for Tesla’s Full Self-Driving technology, or FSD.
The Tesla CEO said he expects the two-seater Robotaxi, also referred to as Cybercab, to be in production sometime in 2026 “or before 2027” and cost less than $30,000.
Paul Miller, an analyst at the Forrester Financial Services Company, said the Musk announcement should be noted in the context of “a decade or more of its failed goals around autonomous driving. “
Autonomous taxi regulation has traditionally been slow, he added — and Tesla’s approach will come with unique challenges.
“Tesla’s vehicles, sensors, and software will want to be approved in whatever market they hope to enter. The lack of a wheel’s cybersweetness or steering pedals makes sense in some autonomous vehicles in the long run, but it can further complicate the procedure of calm and quiet regulators. today,” he said.
Musk has previously said Tesla would create its own ride-hailing platform, which would be a cross between Uber and Airbnb apps, for riders to summon a driverless car. While a portion of the fleet would be owned by Tesla, individual Tesla customers would also have the option to add their vehicles to the Robotaxi fleet for additional income.
However, it will be difficult to compete with the length and corporations operations established such as Uber, Lyft and Waymo.
Dan O’Dowd, Founder of The Dawn Project and previous Musk critic, noted that the contrast between Tesla and robotaxi competitors like Waymo was “stark.”
“Until Tesla Robotaxis transports 100,000 consumers who pay consistently with the week to primary cities in the U. S. U. S. Like Waymo Does, Tesla Robotaxi is nothing more than the most recent paintings of fiction coming out of the Warner Bros. studio,” he said in a note.
Not everyone is pessimistic about Tesla’s latest offering.
Asset control company Deepwater said Tesla had figured out the “right balance between form and function” and praised its FSD capabilities.
“The standalone reader fluid, which feels more herbal than any of the FSD betas I’ve encountered. Even if the fit and finish component due to the closed-loop controlled nature of the demo in Warner’s back lot, impressive demonstration,” Gene Munster via Deepwater and Brian Baker wrote in a note published Friday.
According to analysts, Tesla may also find it difficult to expand its Robotaxi vision due to a lack of partnerships.
Tesla “potentially underappreciates the obstacles to scaling a robotaxi fleet” such as the technology, asset ownership, regulation, fleet management, and demand required to run an operation at scale, the Jefferies analysts wrote. “We also believe TSLA could struggle to scale fleet operations without offering access to demand via Uber/Lyft.”
Uber is already a long run of electric cars and self-driving cars without Tesla’s involvement.
In August, Uber announced a partnership with Tesla’s biggest competitor, Chinese electric vehicle maker BYD. The corporations said Uber drivers in the markets could get discounts on 100,000 new electric cars from BYD, and that they are also contemplating participating in autonomous driving.
“The terms of the agreement seem to inspire Uber drivers to do without cars given the decrease in prices,” said Matt Bryson, Wedbush analyst, in a note at that time.
In addition, Uber has already associated with Robotaxi Rivals, adding Waymo and Aurora’s innovation owned by Alphabet.
“Uber can meet high demand without AV players having to invest capital to win consumers or expand market generation that provides the reliability consumers expect,” Dara Khosrowshahi, Uber’s chief executive, said at a convention on the effects in August. “We are in complex conversations with other global audiovisual players to register on our platform. “
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