Elon Musk rents the knowledge that, according to him, shows that Tesla is about to make the complete driving be unattended, when, in fact, they are still years and deforms it.
It is difficult to take Musk seriously regarding autonomous driving deadlines because it has been very bad for years.
Some who cannot keep it in opposition to him, even if he uses his claims to sell cars and sell “autonomous” plans for up to $ 15,000, because he is very complicated and vital to serve the star.
Even if you agree with this argument, there are transparent disorders with Musk’s statements regarding Tesla’s progress and towards the self -entry unleashed.
They are the data.
Tesla has refused to percentage of knowledge about his autonomous progress. Although more recently it will begin to use “miles between mandatory disconnection”, rarely called “miles between critical disconnection”, such as the metric to follow progress and claim multipliers x in kilometers between the critical disconnection in recent bets without any genuine knowledge to save him.
A recent example has been Musk’s exaggeration, Tesla 12. 4 and 12. 5 Autonomous Software Updates (FSD) that say they can lead “5 to 10 times more miles consisting of intervention. “
Once again, Tesla has never published knowledge to save this, however, we have knowledge of crowdsourcing indicated by FSD 12. 5 achieving 183 miles (all versions combined with the exclusion of the testers with less than 50 miles) between the critical disconnection. Musk has never specified that the improvement “5 to 10x” compared to the version, however, if compared to the latest update, FSD 12. 3, kilometers between the critical disconnection of 228 miles.
There are no versions beyond Tesla FSD in the beyond 3 years, which would accumulate a 3x improvement of the kilometers between critical disconnection. We can “5 to 10x”.
Now, Tesla has upgraded to FSD v13 and Musk again claims that it will “blow people’s mind.”
The car manufacturer said that the V13 would bring “5 to 6 times one step forward through miles between the interventions” compared to V12. 5.
This means that Tesla provided that FSD V13 reaches between 915 and 1,098 miles between critical disconnection in crowdsourcing data.
Currently, after more than 8,000 miles of crowdsourcing data, FSD V13 is 493 miles between disconnection:
It is an improvement of 2. 7x. It is significant, but it is also a significant lack for what Tesla predicted.
Now Elon and Tesla’s enthusiasts like to say that this knowledge of crowdsourcing is imperfect and that Tesla FSD works better.
Knowledge is really limited, but it is the most productive we have a lot since Tesla refuses to percentage of your own knowledge. I have fought in opposition to this accusation, either because, without a doubt, it is the most productive knowledge that is available and because Elon Musk himself referred to this express knowledge of Crowdsource in the past.
Now he did it back and did it to claim an “exponential improvement” in the performances of Tesla FSD, but it is largely misleading:
This knowledge only refer to the Dual and Tesla Miles road has been operating the same road stack for years. The city’s driving software stack is another and is in “neural networks. ” The car manufacturer has continued to promise him to update it, but he has never done so, which leads to the stagnation you see in this graph.
Tesla has worked on this update for years, but has not been published in the V13. He arrived here in V12. 5. 6. 1. If we take all V12 updates after this, the average on the road and 393 miles:
This is not an indication of “exponential improvement. ” It is only Tesla who, despite everything, publishes an update that is expected from its road software battery after working on the city’s software battery in the beyond 2 years.
In addition, if we can take this popularity of Musk that this knowledge is representative of the performance of Tesla FSD, which deserves to be the case, in a different way it would be very misleading for him to perceive it, he shows that Tesla is years of years of years of leadership of non -valid motorway despite the fact that Musk says that this will take place in “T2 2025”, which is in months.
Ashok Elluswamy, the chief of FSD in Tesla, has declared in the past that for Tesla, it will not be indicators without autocomplete, Tesla wishes which is 670,000 miles in the NHTSSA.
Consequently, on the basis of this shared knowledge through Musk, Tesla will have to go from 493 miles between Segendage and 670,000 miles between disconnection in the next five months.
I am not a hateful. I am realistic. Without touching me too much on my back, you will have to give me a loan to predict this with V13. After the Tesla IA team published the planned innovations with V13, I pointed out that I can see that it succeeds in almost “690 to 828 miles between critical disconnection. “
But then I reported that the V13 would cause improvements, but I would not exceed this purpose after the V13 was behind for a few months, then launched with a stupid version.
Now ends 493 miles between disconnection. It makes sense. It is an impressive improvement, however, it is also far from what Tesla said it would happen and still many thousands of kilometers of what Tesla himself said it will have to be to succeed in the unattended autonomous driving.
It is not that, however, Elon now distorts knowledge to affirm that Tesla has performed exponential expansion without any evidence.
Listen, it’s quite simple. As soon as Elon is personally willing to take a road without stopping three hundred miles in a random / random direction that uses Tesla from a visitor with the wheel of the eliminated guide, FSD is approaching. “When he is in a position to go up every day and Every day for a year, it has a functional FSD (perhaps not yet intelligent enough for regulatory but functional approval).
Intentionally analyzes knowledge on highways, which is misleading because the battery has updated a bit for years.
I think it is transparent that it is in self -pare or that he has no concept of what he is talking about, which does not save it in one way or any other for making statements of trust that Tesla sells cars. It is nothing suspicious.
Once again, I liked to emphasize that if Tesla evolved the FSD in a vacuum without Elon Musk claiming Tesla that Tesla achieved the self-calling of self-control, causing “Tesla Automobiles to appreciate the active ingredients” to use cars and cars and packages Autonomous of $ 15,000, I think the progression of Tesla FSD would be celebrated.
Instead, it is widely fraud through many people. This is Elon Musk’s fault.
Fred is editor -in -chief and major in Electk.
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