Car buyers continue to have a higher stock of new cars and trucks at dealerships and, in relation to this, a greater chance of getting a premium discount, judging by the forecast for U. S. auto sales. The U. S. will be released in December, through the end of 2024 and into 2025.
U. S. auto sales are expected to reach about 1. 5 million, up 7. 3% from December 2023, according to a J. D. Joint forecast. Power and GlobalData. Elsewhere, Cox Automotive announced a forecast.
The estimated average incentive per unit in December is $3,442, up $809 vs. December 2023.
“Inventory is a factor that happens to be in the rearview mirror,” Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive, said in a recent webinar hosted through the American Import Automobile Dealers Association. And a larger source arrived with a higher price, he said.
The U. S. retail auto industry, adding fleets, had a stock of 2 million unsold new cars and trucks at the beginning of December, a 24. 7% increase from last year, according to data from Cox Automotive.
In November, inventories accounted for about 89 source days, according to analysts. The number of source days is an estimate of how long a given source will last, at the existing monthly sales rate, if the distributor’s sales were not replenished.
Before COVID, a 60-day supply was a commonly used benchmark in the industry. But amid severe shortages of new cars in 2021 and 2022, the number of delivery days has been reduced to around 20 days, with long queues for many brands.
Now, with an almost widespread level and no queues for maximum models, customer purchasing power is beginning to recover.
At the same time, consumers are also downsizing, analysts said, in response to prices that are still high by historical standards. That means smaller vehicles are gaining share for a change, reversing a long-term trend in favor of bigger trucks and SUVs.
Cox Automotive said it expects U. S. auto sales of 15. 8 million in 2024, up 2. 2% from 2023.
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