The Denver Nuggets have split their first four of eight seeding games since the NBA season returned last month at Disney World in Orlando, Florida, an outcome which has left them at the same third place position in the Western Conference standings where they were when the league suspended its season on March 11 due to the coronavirus pandemic (and where I projected in June that they’d end up).
Here is where things currently stand in the West going into a Saturday which features two games – the Los Angeles Clippers versus the Portland Trail Blazers, and the Nuggets against the Utah Jazz – which potentially have important seeding implications:
The jostling among the third through sixth seeds has remained relatively competitive, with 2.5 games separating that field, but with each team having only three or four games remaining, the window for further shuffling of the standings will be rapidly closing.
In an odd quirk produced by the league suspending its season partway through after teams had played different numbers of games, but scheduling all 22 of the bubble teams to play an identical number of eight games after returning, the prospect of tiebreakers has been completely eliminated for the Nuggets, as they will finish the season with 73 games while every team they’re competing for seeding with will have played 72. This actually gives Denver a de facto mathematical tiebreaker advantage which, while arguably unfair, is the result of one of the many compromises the league has had to make to be able to resume the season at all.
Importantly for the Nuggets, they won the only game they’ve played so far against an opponent with which they are in direct playoff seeding competition by beating the Oklahoma City Thunder 121 to 113 in their second contest in the bubble.
Of Denver’s remaining four games, two of them – tonight against Utah and Wednesday versus the Los Angeles Clippers – could have greater bearing on impacting the West’s playoff picture as they involve teams directly competing for seeding, but all four will play a part in determining the Nuggets’ final outcome.
The Jazz game tonight is likely the most important of these, as a win would put the Nuggets two full games ahead of the Rockets, pull them within a single game of the Clippers, and put Utah firmly out of contention for the third seed.
The table below shows the range of possible outcomes for all of the teams that still have the potential to finish third in the West, depending on the number of wins each team secures in their remaining seeding games. All teams have four games left except Utah, which has three. The cells with opponents’ win percentages which have the same color as Denver’s percentages indicate the record those teams will need to reach in order to pass the Nuggets in the standings. For example, if the Nuggets finish with two more wins their final record will be .644 (green), in which case the Rockets would need to win all four of their remaining games to finish at .653 (green) and usurp Denver for the third seed.
Here is a detailed breakdown of every possible outcome for the Nuggets, and what it could mean for their final place in the standings:
According to Basketball-Reference’s Playoff Probabilities Report, which runs 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season, the Nuggets now have a 62.6% chance of holding on to the third seed, a 24.1% chance of slipping to fourth, a 7.5% chance of falling all the way back to fifth, and just a 3.8% chance of rising to second. The one factor which could boost their chances to climb, which the simulation can’t account for, is the possibility of the Clippers resting players in preparation for the playoffs and conceding more losses than they normally would at full strength.
In one sense, the importance of playoff seeding has been diminished by the fact that home court advantage has been eliminated, with every team competing in the bubble’s neutral location.
That said, what remains significant for the Nuggets are their potential matchups, and on that front their positioning looks to be on a good track, provided that they either retain the third seed (the most likely outcome by far, as noted above) or move up to second.
Firstly, Denver will almost certainly avoid a first-round matchup with a Houston team that has been a thorn in their side for years. Either the Thunder or Jazz would have to be considered a more favorable draw for the Nuggets, giving them a better shot at reaching the second round.
When it comes to which of the two Los Angeles teams they would then more than likely face in the semifinals, it might just come down to picking their poison. But the Lakers have fairly well dominated Denver this season, and while the Nuggets would be major underdogs in either series, a path to scraping together four wins against the Clippers seems more plausible. Staying in the second or third seed puts them on that track, whereas the fourth or fifth would find them on the same side of the bracket as the Lakers.
So while the Nuggets’ playoff picture is still very much in flux – and will be even more so if they lose to Utah tonight – they essentially control their destiny in being able to position themselves as favorably as possible in a tough Western Conference.
I’ve covered the Nuggets since 2005, writing for Forbes, BSN Denver, Roundball Mining Company, and more. Follow me on Twitter at @JoelRushNBA, where my views are my own.
I’ve covered the Nuggets since 2005, writing for Forbes, BSN Denver, Roundball Mining Company, and more. Follow me on Twitter at @JoelRushNBA, where my views are my own.