But to date, the ballot suggests that nothing has worked.
POSTAL VOTING BEGINS WHEN NORTH CAROLINA SENDS BALLOTS; DEMS LEAD STRONGLY IN ABSENCE APPLICATIONS
Attacks on former Vice President Biden for being too close to China …too close to Ukraine … too serious to oppose crime (author of the Crime Act 1994) …a supporter of “defining the police” and a sanders/AOC wing captive …or even just crazy shifted the survey considerably.
Instead, Biden, arguably the simplest presidential candidate Democrats have nominated in two generations, nearly teflon in his ability to quietly dodge attacks.
You may see the strength of democrats’ strategy in polls that many Republicans cited as indicators of Biden’s weakness: Trump’s electorate was very excited to vote for Trump, while Biden’s electorate was not enthusiastic about Biden, but were in fact excited to vote AGAINST Trump… In other words, the election was just a referendum on Trump.
TRUMP CAMPAIGN FOR LEGAL BATTLE OVER ELECTIONS, FORMING ”COALITION’ OF LAWYERS
Here’s the challenge for top incumbents: They are at a disadvantage in a referendum-style election. Each voter has an explanation of why they are disappointed with the incumbent. For one and both voters, there are at least one or two things that they could recommend that ” the prestige quo may just be better. ” This is especially true when the prestige quo is a pandemic with double-digit unemployment.
Now, in the face of urban unrest that followed George Floyd’s death while in the custody of the Minneapolis police, Trump has sought the cloak of “law and order,” and there is very little evidence (yet) in the polls, now, in spite of everything, he may be on a forged strategic floor to force a selection between Biden’s U.S. vision and President Trump’s vision.
CLICK HERE TO SEE THE NEWSLETTER
At first, Trump’s strategy appeared to backfire, as his call to the National Guard and the military caused other people to back down. In fact, at the end of May (at the time of his photoshoot at St. John’s Episcopal Church, near the White House), Trump had fewer than five Biden numbers on the national average. by RealClearPolitics. By the time of the bipartisan conventions, it had dropped 8 and Biden had reached 50% support.
But Trump continued, as a player who knew him, the only hope of a crusade that, as in 2016, is about to be cancelled by many.
The bet is transparent, if the public can be convinced that it was not only riots away from them, but riots near their homes, they may simply walk away from Biden.
So far, there are some polling symptoms of the wisdom of this strategy.
The clearest is a survey conducted in Wisconsin by Marquette Law School.In mid-June, he found that 68% of wisconsin-registered electorate approved the Black Lives Matter protests, 25 issues without disapproval.
By mid-August (before Jacob Blake’s shooting and the protests that followed), approval had fallen to 48%, the same number as those who disapproved of “Black Lives Matter,” with even greater declines among whites.
The president has continued to insist on the desire to send the National Guard, or more, to cities like Portland and Kenosha, and blames Biden for not strongly condemning the protests.He gave the impression of backing the protests of others marching through the two cities to attack the “Black Lives Matter” protests.
Biden responded last Sunday by tweeting a conviction for the violence, saying that “the fatal violence we saw overnight in Portland is unacceptable.Shooting on the streets of a primary American city is unacceptable.I condemn violence throughout its bureaucracy through anyone, whether it stays.”Or so. And she flew to Pittsburgh and said, “Donald Trump can’t help the violence we see, because for years he fostered it.”
It is too early for surveys to recommend whether any of the applicants gain political advantages from this new violence, but one thing is clear.Trump has managed to turn the main theme of COVID and the economy into an issue of urban violence.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FOX NEWS APP
More importantly, it forces the electorate to move from the idea of the election as a referendum on Trump, to a selection of Trump’s vision of wanting to suppress urban protests, as Biden approaches dealing with them.
Finally, unlike a natural Trump referendum, it’s a selection that can lead to a Trump advantage.
CLICK HERE TO LEARN MORE ABOUT ARNON MISHKIN